Recent figures and speculation
The 2022 Census preliminary results just released indicate that the overall population of Co. Mayo has risen to 137,231 from 130,507 in the 2016 census. This increase of 6,724 represents a percentage increase of 5.2%.
The population of every other county has also increased and at an overall figure of 5,123,536 the population of the State is at its highest since 1851.
This will mean both an overall increase in the number of TDs in the Dail and some re drawing of the constituency boundaries nationwide.
The Constituency Commission will consider the population changes and other factors over the next while and are expected to report in 2023. Bunreacht na hEireann sets out the ratio of representation in Dail Eireann in Article 16.2.1 :
“16.2.1 the number of members shall from time to time be fixed by law, but the total number of members of Dáil Éireann shall not be fixed at less than one member for each thirty thousand of the population, or at more than one member for each twenty thousand of the population. “
In this post I am setting out the recent history of boundary alterations as they apply to the constituency of Mayo.
History of boundary alterations since 2006
The 2002 General Election was held using the Electoral Divisions wholly contained within the county Boundary of Mayo and 5 TDs were elected. The 2007 Boundary Commission Report, based on the census figures of 2006, recommended that this arrangement continue in place. This was based on a population of 123,839 which meant 24,768 per TD. This gave rise to a variance of -3.03% on the national average. There was a census in 2011, but the Boundary Commission did not report until 2012. There was a General Election in 2011, almost a year early so the 2011 election was contested on the same basis as the 2007 election despite any population changes.
In the 2012 report, based on the 2011 Census, the Boundary Commission recommended
1. That a total population of 10,306 in 9 Electoral Divisions be given to Galway West and that the remaining electoral divisions inside the county boundary of Mayo elect 4 TDs.
2. Galway West with the additional 9 Electoral Divisions was to continue to have 5 TDs
The 9 Electoral Divisions in question were all in the general Ballinrobe area
Ballinrobe
The Neale
Cong
Shrule
Houndswood
Garrymore
Kilcommon
Kilmaine
Dalgan
The 2016 General Election therefore saw 120,306 population elect 4 TDs with 30,083 per TD a variance on the national average of 1,043 or +3.59%
The 2017 Boundary Commission report, based on the 2016 Census recommended the return of 4,893 population to Mayo from Galway West. This additional population did not alter the recommendation of 4 seats in the Mayo constituency. It also recommended a number of other population changes for Galway West but that it was to remain a five seater constituency.
In GE 2020 4 TDs were elected by 124,975 of population and average of 31,244 per TD which was a variance of 1,482 or + 4.98%
Table 1 : Summary of changes in Mayo Constituency population representation 2006 to 2016 (See Notes 2 and 3 below for sources)
| Co. Mayo Population | Constituency Population | Seats | Constituency Population per seat | Variance from National Average per TD | ||
| Pop. | % | |||||
| 2016 | 130,507 | 124,975 | 4 | 31,244 | 1,482 | +4.98 |
| 2011 | 130,638 | 120,332 | 4 | 30,083 | 1,043 | + 3.59 |
| 2006 | 123,839 | 123,839 | 5 | 24,768 | -773 | -3.03 |
Who are the boundary commission and what do they do.
Following the publication of preliminary census statistics, a Boundary Commission is established under the Electoral Act 1997.
The Commission is composed of a judge of the High Court, The Clerk of the Dail, The Ombudsman, The Secretary General of the Department of Housing and Local Government, and the Clerk of The Seanad.
They make recommendations to The Oireachtas. The proposed changes then have to be passed into law by the Oirecahtas
Their recommendations are based on a number of factors:
- Provisions in the Constitution regarding representation (See Note 1 below)
- Provisions in Electoral Law, principally currently the 1997 act
- Decisions of the courts in relation to electoral representation
- Population changes and movements
- Representations received from civil society.
Notes, Sources and Further reading
Note 1.
Source : The Irish Statute Book
For the full text of Bunreacht na hEireann – The Irish Constitution click here for pdf of the Constitution.
Note 2.
All of the reports and detailed recommendations are available on the Constituency Commission website. The specific reports listed below were used in writing this piece.
Report on Dáil and -European Parliament Constituencies 2017 – The Constituency Commission
Report on Dáil and -European Parliament Constituencies 2012 – The Constituency Commission
Report on Dáil and -European Parliament Constituencies 2007 – The Constituency Commission
Report on Dáil Constituencies 2004 – The Constituency Commission
Note 3
Census Data 2006, 2011, 2016 – Central Statistics Office